In early March 2026, as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a standstill, violent fluctuations in the global energy market rapidly spread throughout the chemical industry chain. As of March 10, prices for various domestic chemical products were soaring, with core commodities such as ethylene oxide and polyvinyl alcohol leading the charge.

01 Data Spotlight: Polyvinyl Alcohol Soars 18% in a Single Day, with Vinyl Acetate Following Suit with Gains Exceeding 10%

According to data released by Longzhong Information on March 10, the polyvinyl alcohol market is experiencing a significant upward trend. As of March 10, Polyvinyl alcohol 1799 #Quotations in the East China region have reached 13,950 yuan. /ton , up from 11,800 yuan/ton on March 6. 18.22% , recording the largest single-day gain in recent times.

As the core raw material for polyvinyl alcohol, the price of vinyl acetate has surged in tandem. In the East China region, the quoted price for vinyl acetate stands at 7,500 yuan per ton, up from 6,800 yuan per ton on March 6. 10.29% ; In South China, the quoted price for vinyl acetate is 8,750 yuan per ton, up from the previous day. 12.90% 。

Longzhong Information’s analysis points out that the core drivers behind this round of sharp increases in polyvinyl alcohol prices include: Export orders remain strong, local spot supply is relatively limited, and some companies have raised their prices. A confluence of multiple factors is at play. As an important chemical raw material, polyvinyl alcohol is widely used in textile sizing agents, architectural coatings, adhesives, papermaking, and other fields; a sharp increase in its price will quickly be passed down the supply chain.

Compared with polyvinyl alcohol, the ethylene oxide market is also facing strong upward price pressures. According to data from Guantong Futures, on March 6, ethylene prices in Northeast Asia rose month-on-month. US$50 per ton As of $850 per ton, Southeast Asian ethylene prices rose by $50 per ton month-on-month to $820 per ton. Since ethylene serves as a direct feedstock for ethylene oxide, its price increase has provided strong cost support for ethylene oxide.

02 Cost Pass‑Through: The “Three‑Tier Logic” from Crude Oil to Chemical Products

Behind this round of chemical product price increases lies a systemic cost pass‑through triggered by the soaring crude oil prices. A in-depth analysis by Securities Times points out that this transmission process is characterized by a clear… Three-layer logic ：

First layer The rise in crude oil prices has directly driven up the prices of basic chemical feedstocks such as naphtha, butadiene, and acrylonitrile. As the “king of commodities,” crude oil’s influence is being fully and vividly demonstrated.

Second layer Cost pressures are being passed down to intermediate materials. Take nitrile gloves as an example: nitrile latex is synthesized from butadiene and acrylonitrile. Affected by the ongoing escalation of the situation in the Middle East, global ethylene producers and their cracking facilities have successively declared force majeure and substantially reduced or halted production. As a byproduct of ethylene cracking, butadiene’s supply has been directly hit, and the supply gap continues to widen.

Third layer Cost pressures are converging at the finished goods end. With supply and demand for core raw materials such as butadiene remaining tightly balanced, downstream product prices have begun to rise in response to the transmission of raw material cost increases.

According to relevant personnel at Zhonghong Medical, the market is currently in a tight situation characterized by “orders being closed due to lack of stock,” and domestic traders report an extreme shortage of spot supplies, with “difficulty securing spot inventory” becoming the new normal.

03 Supply and Demand Dynamics: Supply Shortages Are Worsening, and Inventory Continues to Decline

From a supply‑and‑demand fundamentals perspective, this round of price increases is not solely cost‑driven; the substantial contraction on the supply side has also played a crucial role.

Regarding ethylene oxide Although production capacity has continued to expand in recent years, most new facilities are primarily equipped for internal downstream use, resulting in only limited growth in commercial output. By 2025, China’s total ethylene oxide production capacity had exceeded 10 million tons; however, the slowing growth in downstream demand has constrained the pace at which output can be released. Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in recent times, operational uncertainties surrounding certain facilities have increased, further exacerbating the tight supply situation.

Regarding polyvinyl alcohol , Longzhong Information pointed out that the current market is exhibiting “ Local spot supply is relatively limited. characteristics. Against the backdrop of continued export orders, domestic market supply is tightening, driving prices to fluctuate higher and shift upward.

Meanwhile, inventory across the industrial chain continues to be destocked. According to industry statistics, the number of days’ worth of inventory for major chemical products has fallen to a relatively low level, and the supply‑demand dynamic has shifted from loose to tight, further bolstering price support.

04 Downstream Transmission: Single-Use Gloves Enter Price-Hike Mode

The soaring prices of chemical raw materials are rapidly being passed on to end‑consumer products, and disposable gloves have become one of the first sectors to feel the pressure.

According to a report by Securities Times, the average price of nitrile latex used for disposable gloves in the North China market rose by approximately… last week. 16.7% Driven by rising raw material prices, the price of disposable gloves is likely to follow suit and increase.

Meanwhile, the price of natural latex gloves is also poised for an upward trend. Although natural rubber is not directly linked to crude oil, the sharp surge in oil prices has significantly driven up global logistics and transportation costs. In addition, as the price of synthetic rubber (nitrile) has skyrocketed, some demand has shifted to natural latex, and the resulting substitution effect has further bolstered raw material prices. At present, the spot price of natural rubber in Thailand has already seen a cumulative increase of more than 6% over the past month.

Industry experts point out that, in the short term, it will be difficult to completely eliminate disruptions in the Middle East situation, which means that volatility in crude oil and related chemical feedstocks will remain high. With supply and demand for core raw materials such as butadiene remaining tightly balanced, cost pass‑through will continue to spread downstream.

05 Corporate Responses: Integrated Leaders Like Satellite Chemical Benefit

Against the backdrop of widespread price increases in chemical products, companies that benefit from integrated industrial chain advantages are now seeing their value reevaluated. A comprehensive analysis by Securities Times points out that Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), leveraging its low‑carbon, light hydrocarbon–integrated production process and a complete portfolio of new materials, is unleashing significant earnings flexibility during cycles of rising chemical prices.

Data show that from January 9 to February 27, the price of acrylic acid rose from 5,475 yuan/ton to 5,975 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 9%. As of March 5, the average price of acrylic acid stood at 7,250 yuan/ton, posting a substantial week-on-week increase. 22.26% , while butyl acrylate, polyethylene, ethylene glycol, and ethylene oxide saw week-on-week changes of… 17.95%, 9.65%, 12.79%, 6.34% With the price spread for bulk commodities being corrected and new material varieties accelerating in price increases and volume, the growth potential of integrated industry leaders is becoming increasingly prominent under this dual impetus.

06 Outlook: Reconstructing the Industrial Chain in the Era of High Oil Prices

As the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, international oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel and are rapidly approaching $120. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that if the conflict persists, oil prices could climb even higher. Against this backdrop, the cost pass‑through within the chemical industry chain will accelerate.

From a broader perspective, this round of oil price increases is disrupting the traditional price relationships between crude oil and other energy products. As Brent crude oil prices… Above $80 per barrel At that time, the economic viability of coal chemical industry will enter a strong profitability zone characterized by significant gains. According to comprehensive reports from organizations such as the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, the substitution effect of coal chemicals will gradually become apparent in the era of high oil prices, thereby triggering a fundamental restructuring of the entire energy and chemical industry system.

For downstream enterprises, how to manage supply chain risks and optimize procurement strategies in an era of high costs will become the core challenge determining their competitiveness. For leading enterprises that possess integrated advantages and strong cost-control capabilities, this round of price hikes represents a strategic opportunity to consolidate their position within the industry cycle.

From a daily surge of 18% in polyvinyl alcohol prices to a weekly increase of 16% in nitrile latex; from Brent crude oil at $120 per barrel to a broad rally across the entire chemical product spectrum— the energy crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East is cascading down the intricate chemical industry chain, passing through each successive link. In this wave of price hikes ignited by geopolitical tensions, companies at every stage are grappling with rising costs while simultaneously searching for sustainable strategies to navigate the economic cycle.